Thursday, November 11, 2010

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And why not after all?

The U.S. has more than that to recover. They have failed to reassure Americans after this latest crisis, the crisis of subprime , bank bailouts, new profits huge banks and now Foreclosure - gate ... The Americans are really starting to lack confidence and without confidence, not consumer. Consumption was the main driver of the U.S. economy. Now down the U.S. economy is looking for a new engine that it did not used to exploit: the trade balance, international competitiveness. And for that, the best weapon is to have an undervalued currency and low.

course the major creditors and "suppliers" of the USA, using the same weapon, do not want to leave. China expresses more on this subject.

What is the reality in the fund? China is becoming richer and more developed. The U.S., in my view, declined at all levels. Europe, despite PIGS , has remained at a good level, thanks to Germany and Euroland . It would be fair to let the dollar depreciate because that we can consider that it is over-rated today. Just as it would be fair to let the Yuan appreciate him because he is really undervalued and does not reflect the wealth of China.


But for that, should the dollar lose its influence, the dollar is no longer the world standard (in terms of reserve currency in particular). And that c is not easy to do. Imagine if the dollar loses its role. Who will pay when the U.S. economy? The EDF can not do so indefinitely. How to ask the market to fund after a sharp devaluation and at what price? I can hardly imagine the future rate of return on U.S. Treasury bills (especially in the case of another assumption that is increasingly mentioned: the cancellation of part of the U.S. debt ...)

short, devaluation of the dollar would reflect a form of protectionism from the U.S. to revitalize its economy through the trade balance. In this case, in the longer term, what benefits of Europe, for example, could draw?

Initially, international competitiveness would take a hit. But on the other hand, since commodities are still trading in the dollar, our companies might try to offset some effects of protectionism by higher margins (due to trading of MP dollar) on the European market (without too much exaggeration to also fight against imported products). It would be interesting to calculate and determine the effect of "positive" from the falling dollar and purchasing MP dollar. To what extent could compensate for the loss of competitiveness?
Then imagine that the falling dollar will allow us to invest in "cheap prices" across the Atlantic (of course, initially, there would be an influx of speculative capital and then a big return to the sender). I think of the Chinese (and Europeans too) who could then take significant stakes in American companies ... Same question: How do you measure that? I begin

to tell me that if Europe seems a bit passive in this "conflict" (between U.S. and BRICs with China in the lead) is not much be because it is not we who have the most to lose. ..

NO? credible or not? It can not work like that? Is that the end of the day, long term, it would come out not winning?


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